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Coinbase is a digital asset broker headquartered in San Francisco, California. They broker exchanges of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and other digital assets with fiat currencies in 32 countries, and bitcoin transactions and storage in 190 countries worldwide.
Problems in the last 24 hours
The graph below depicts the number of Coinbase reports received over the last 24 hours by time of day. When the number of reports exceeds the baseline, represented by the red line, an outage is determined.
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Most Reported Problems
The following are the most recent problems reported by Coinbase users through our website.
- Transactions (50%)
- Website (25%)
- Withdrawals (25%)
Live Outage Map
The most recent Coinbase outage reports came from the following cities:
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Withdrawals | 1 month ago |
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Transactions | 2 months ago |
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Transactions | 3 months ago |
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Website | 3 months ago |
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Login | 3 months ago |
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Mobile App | 4 months ago |
Community Discussion
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Coinbase Issues Reports
Latest outage, problems and issue reports in social media:
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brian combs (@gunnarlee23) reported@fomo Can someone please help me...I withdrew used on my fomo account and sent it to my coinbase account and haven't received the funds. I am not a noob and did everything correctly. Can someone from @fomo please help me. I have emailed and haven't gotten a response
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cheemsburger🐕🍔 | T-REX.network 🦖 (@DarkVadoge) reported@Bitcees @retardedpleb coinbase transaction - empty block
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Uptimus (@UptimusApp) reportedSep 02, 2026 at 02:17 UTC: Coinbase reports that the performance issues affecting Coinbase Onramp have been resolved. The incident lasted 82 minutes and Payments are now operational.
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Leszek Laska (@llaska233) reported@coinbase Can you add a setting where the charts stop going down when the app crashes?
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hodLNothing.btc 🟧 (@hodlstxbtc) reportedMuneeb just published the first official @Stacks market analysis, co-written with a newly hired market analyst. Read past the numbers and three things stand out 👇 📊 The numbers ▸ STX +83% in 4 days, ~4x Bitcoin's move ▸ Still +42% above the July Binance-tag level, BTC +19% over the same period ▸ $157M weekly volume, 7x normal, largest since 2024 ▸ Mid-to-large orders: 2,879, 10x the 2026 weekly median ▸ First positive net taker flow of 2026 across Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Upbit 🔍 What the data says 1⃣ The buyer changed In January and May, programmatic buying showed up before the rally. This time small orders led and systematic flow joined on day 4. Pulled, not pushed. 2⃣ Korea flipped The market that sold hardest after the Binance tag exhausted its selling before the rally, then posted the only Korean net inflow of 2026. When Upbit sold again the next week, passive bids absorbed it over 7 days and price closed flat. In July, the same selling took STX down 15% in two days. The overhang is being digested. 3⃣ Downside beta went negative Two days where BTC fell and STX closed green. STX started trading on its own catalyst instead of as a Bitcoin beta trade. The report flags that two days is a thin sample, and it is right. 🧭 The meta signal A founder who avoided market talk for years now publishes internal flow data with a named analyst and a disclaimer. That is the behavior of a team that believes the fundamentals can survive scrutiny. Their closing line: markets price narrative fast, fundamentals slow. Eight days to enrollment. Disclosure: I hold BTC and $STX .
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David@seeASX (@DavidseeASX) reportedTokens on #Coinbase are not found and no answer as no customer service #Coinbase is like hralth insurance
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Anthony Bower (@s12ocg) reported@fullforcetrades Could you share the exact device verification error you’re seeing? Coinbase may require additional verification for unfamiliar cloud devices, even with an authenticator code.
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Troll to 0 (@GetTrolled69_) reportedWhat’s left of solana:5UUH9RTDiSpq6HKS6bp4NdU9PNJpXRXuiw6ShBTBhgH2 now? It already went to ATH when it got listed on coinbase and got ip rights What’s the catalyst now? That it has ip rights? No one gives a ****. It’s been over a year and all they’ve done is make ****** merch
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Global (@Globalwithitt) reported@sharpinvestr Fair play but still big *****. Wagwan tho you pattern that 350k coinbase ****? Last time we spoke was when i was telling you to use your emirates ID.
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Morpheu5 Stock Watcher (@Morpheu5Watcher) reportedISHARES BITCOIN TRUST $IBIT SHED $201M OF BITCOIN YESTERDAY. NOBODY THERE DECIDED TO: iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT at $43.80, +$0.04 / +0.09% today. Yesterday $201.2M walked out of it - 85% of the entire $236.5M that left every US spot bitcoin fund put together. No manager chose that figure. A spot ETF is a fund that holds the real coin in storage and cuts the pile into shares that trade in an ordinary brokerage account. It has no opinion. When more holders sell shares than buy them, the fund shrinks and coin leaves the vault to match. The figure people read as a verdict on bitcoin is closer to a headcount of who stayed. WHERE THE COINS ARE - Bitcoin, ticker BTC: $77,394, -0.12% over the past 24 hours - Ethereum, ticker ETH, the second largest: $2,395, -1.45% Bitcoin barely moved overnight. The money did. THE MONTH, AND THEN THE TURN August was a strong stretch: $3.5B of net new money into these funds across 21 trading days, 16 days in against 5 out. Then the last week, all US spot bitcoin funds together: - Aug 24-27, four days in a row: +$337.6M, +$314.4M, +$232.1M, +$242.2M - Aug 28: -$201.8M. Aug 31: +$216.7M. Sep 1: -$236.5M This one trust took $205.9M of that August 31 inflow - 95% of it - and produced $201.2M of yesterday's outflow, 85%. On August 27 it took in $277.6M while the whole group took $242.2M, meaning its rivals were losing money underneath a green headline. One fund is not part of the flow figure. It very nearly is the flow figure. THE SPLIT NOBODY EXPECTS Same session, opposite direction next door. US spot ether funds took IN $10.95M on September 1, a twelfth straight day of money arriving - and ether is the one down harder today. The difference is that ether can be put to work. Staking means locking coins up to help run the network and being paid a small return for it; about 34% of all ether, roughly 41M coins, is locked that way. Since January 5, US funds have been permitted to pass those rewards on to shareholders. Bitcoin has no equivalent. A bitcoin fund can only hold. An ether fund can now earn. WHY BOTH ARE SOFT Bitcoin pays nothing, ever, so it competes with whatever safe money pays - and the 10-year Treasury yield, what the US government pays to borrow for a decade, touched 4.814% today, its highest since November 2023. At 8:15am ET, ADP Research put August hiring at private US employers at +38,000 jobs against about 47,000 expected, July revised to +46,000 - the slowest since January. Soft hiring normally argues for cheaper money. Not this week: interest-rate futures put the odds of a quarter-point rate INCREASE at the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting near 66%. ONE COMPANY OWNS MORE BITCOIN THAN THE BIGGEST FUND DOES Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR, at $122.55, -$2.33 / -1.87%. The Tysons Corner, Virginia company, 1,539 staff, borrows money and issues shares to buy bitcoin and hold it. It owns 845,050 coins. The trust at the top of this page holds 779,840 - so one company holds 65,210 more bitcoin than the largest bitcoin fund in the world. At this morning's price those coins are worth $65.40B. The whole company is worth $47.08B - market cap, the share price times every share in existence. The shares are priced near 72 cents for every dollar of bitcoin the business owns. That is not free bitcoin. Lenders and preferred shareholders - a class of stock paid ahead of ordinary shares - stand in front of common holders, and adding those claims back puts the whole enterprise a little ABOVE the coins, not below. Where the money actually goes: in the week to August 30 the company sold 4,531,421 of its own shares for $602.8M and split it four ways - $369.7M on 4,603 bitcoin at an average $80,318, $151.8M buying back its own preferred stock, $50.7M paying preferred dividends, $30.0M to cash. Only 61 cents of every dollar raised reached a coin. THE FEE COLLECTOR Coinbase, ticker COIN, at $176.01, -$0.81 / -0.46%. The New York company runs the largest US crypto exchange, employs 4,951 and is worth $46.42B. In the June quarter, reported July 30, subscriptions, custody and interest brought in $555M - 48% of net revenue, the money coming in the door, from 29% at the end of 2024. Nearly half its income no longer waits for anybody to press a button. WHERE THESE SIT The fund cannot be a Len5 pick at all. All six weigh a business, and a pile of coins has no sales, no customers, and nobody who can fix a bad year. Coinbase and Strategy carry none of the six, and one fact does most of it: both ended the last twelve months in a loss, so the two value styles and the two growth styles have no profit to set anything against. Momentum watches a company climbing on news of its own, and both are lower today on somebody else's. Neither pays a common dividend, which settles Income. WHAT WOULD CHANGE COINBASE: that 48% growing into a profitable year, giving a style something other than the coin to price. WHAT WOULD CHANGE STRATEGY: the preferred stock costing less each quarter than the shares sold to pay it. WHERE THIS BREAKS Crypto is volatile and speculative, and nothing here forecasts a price. One day of flows is one day - this same group was positive on 16 of August's 21 sessions. Every share price above is a live mark with hours left to trade. Friday at 8:30am ET the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the August employment report - the government's own count of jobs added or lost, plus the unemployment rate - after July LOST 23,000 jobs at 4.1%. It regularly disagrees with the private count. US markets are shut Monday, September 7. A fund with no opinion produced the loudest number in crypto yesterday. It did it the way a turnstile produces a number - by counting people on their way out. Nobody at the trust gets to forecast the next reading. It is whatever its own holders do between now and four o'clock. Not investment advice.
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Tiaaxoxo (@TiaMaye4) reported@SHL_eth Yeh **** coinbase cant withdraw to my bank :/
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Bridger Pennington (@bridger_penn) reportedHUGE NEWS FOR CRYPTO 🚨: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong just confirmed what he's been saying for 4 months: there are now officially more AI agent accounts on Coinbase than human ones. Not just speculation anymore — the agent economy is here. This moved faster than anyone saw coming, and it's still super early. Can't help but wonder what this looks like a few months out! Curious about your thoughts, drop a comment below
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OlaWealth ® (@JudahOlatunde) reportedJUST IN: ✓ Coinbase has announced that eligible Canadian investors can now trade crypto derivatives on its platform. This is the first time a regulated cryptocurrency exchange has launched such a service in Canada.
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Morpheu5 Stock Watcher (@Morpheu5Watcher) reportedISHARES BITCOIN TRUST $IBIT LOST $201 MILLION ON TUESDAY - 85 CENTS OF EVERY DOLLAR THAT LEFT: iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT at $43.39 (premarket), -$0.37 / -0.85% from Tuesday's $43.76 close. Investors pulled a net $201.18M out of it on September 1 - about 85% of the $236.5M that left every US spot bitcoin fund put together, and the group's heaviest single day since July 31. Set that against the fund itself, which is worth about $60.05B. Market value, or market cap, is the share price times every share in existence, and here it is simply what the coin in the vault comes to. The worst day in five weeks moved a third of one percent of it. The two largest coins right now: Bitcoin, ticker BTC, at $76,614, -1.48% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum, ticker ETH, the second largest, at $2,372, -3.16%. Ether is falling more than twice as fast. WHAT AN OUTFLOW ACTUALLY IS A spot ETF is a fund that holds the real coin in storage and cuts the pile into shares that trade in an ordinary brokerage account - the shares stand on actual bitcoin, not on a bet about the price. The number of those shares is not fixed. Large trading firms create new ones by delivering bitcoin to the fund, and cancel them by handing shares back and taking coin out. So a flow figure is not a price and not an opinion poll. It is the vault getting bigger or smaller. The arithmetic behind the quote: 779,839.7 bitcoin sat in that vault on September 1, against about 1.372B shares - roughly 0.00057 bitcoin behind every share, about $43.50 worth at this morning's coin price. The fee is 0.25% a year, taken in bitcoin, so a share stands on slightly less coin each year. AUGUST WAS THE BEST MONTH OF THE YEAR AND THE YEAR IS STILL NEGATIVE - August: +$3.52B into US spot bitcoin funds, the strongest month of 2026, with money arriving on 16 of 21 trading days - Bitcoin rose about 25% that month, its best since November 2024. July, for scale: +$172M - After all of it, 2026 still stands at a net -$1.77B for these funds January through June is why: -$5.4B, the worst half-year on record for the group, June alone near -$4.5B. The strongest month in almost two years clawed back about two thirds of one bad half and left the year in a hole. That is the frame for Tuesday. One day of $201.18M is small; the run it belongs to is not. THE ETHER FUNDS WENT THE OTHER WAY ON THE SAME DAY US spot ether funds took in $10.95M on September 1, a twelfth straight day of inflows, in the very session bitcoin's funds had their worst day since July. Then ether fell more than twice as hard as bitcoin anyway. Both are true: $10.95M is a rounding error against a market trading every hour in every country, and a US flow figure only counts one country's office hours. WHAT PUSHED BOTH DOWN The return on safe money. Neither coin pays interest, a dividend or rent, ever, so each competes with whatever a government bond pays for taking no risk. Raise that, and the thing paying nothing gets marked down first. The 10-year Treasury yield - what the US government pays to borrow for a decade - was about 4.79% Tuesday, the highest since January 2025. Bets on interest-rate futures put the odds of a quarter-point rate INCREASE at the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting near 66%, from roughly 36% before Chair Kevin Warsh called inflation too high on August 28. Underneath sits a slower pull: buying rotated into AI-linked shares through the first half, which is much of why these funds had their worst six months on record. THE OTHER TWO WAYS IN - Coinbase at $173.74 (premarket), -$3.08 / -1.74% from Tuesday's $176.82 close. The New York company runs an exchange and stores coins for other people, 4,951 staff. It is paid when people trade, so a violent session is not automatically a bad one for its revenue. - Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, at $122.14 (premarket), -$2.74 / -2.19% from $124.88. The Tysons Corner, Virginia company borrowed money to buy bitcoin and hold it, 1,539 staff, software business attached. Its exposure includes the cost of that borrowing - the rate story above, arriving twice. WHERE THESE SIT The fund is outside all six Len5es by construction. Each of them weighs a business, and a vault has no customers, no sales, and nobody who can fix a bad year. Coinbase and Strategy are on none of the six either, and one fact does most of that: each ended the last twelve months in a loss. Quality-Value wants a durable business at a fair price, Deep-Value and Special-Situations one priced under what it looks worth, Growth and Hypergrowth expansion priced sensibly. All four need a profit to set against, so all four stop on a missing number rather than a high one. WHAT WOULD CHANGE THEM: a profitable year at Coinbase, or profit earned by Strategy's software rather than by the coin it holds. Momentum watches a company already climbing on news of its own, and 56.8% and 66.6% under their October 2025 highs is the wrong shape; retaking those highs on their own quarterly figures is the change. Neither pays a dividend, which settles Income. WHERE THIS BREAKS Crypto is volatile and speculative, and nothing here forecasts a price. All three prices above are premarket marks set by very few orders; none of the three had a real price between 4:00pm and 9:30am. Supply is the settled half. Bitcoin's next halving - the scheduled moment the new coin paid to the computers that process transactions gets cut in half, roughly every four years - is dated around April 17, 2028 and was published years ahead. Everything arguing over this morning's price sits on the demand side. Demand has dates. Today at 8:15am ET, ADP Research publishes its August count of jobs added or lost at private employers, after July's +44,000, the weakest in six months. Friday at 8:30am, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the August employment report - the government count of jobs added or lost, plus the unemployment rate - after July LOST 23,000 jobs at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve answers September 16, and US markets are shut Monday, September 7. Tuesday's flow figure only reached the public this morning, a day after the money moved, and the coin has traded every hour since without waiting for it. That is where a flow number honestly sits: a receipt for a day already over. Not investment advice.
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Niko (@NikoAQNY) reportedI think it’s time for everyone to just change all of their passwords. That recent X problem isn’t just X. My @coinbase account was recently weirdly compromised today. I didn’t lose anything but I’m changing everything.
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Professor on chain (@Proxonchain) reported$FARTCOIN DECLINE, WHY THE INSTITUTIONAL FLOAT DUMPED! If you are wondering why $FARTCOIN just lost its key support structure and flushed down toward the $0.160 s , you need to look back at the on-chain tape we flagged earlier. Days ago, we tracked over 5.2 Million $FARTCOIN moving from Coinbase Prime and Fireblocks custody straight to active exchange hot wallets. Over 25% of the total supply was sitting on CEXs. Whales didn’t move those tokens to hold them. Once retail buying pressure peaked, they used that massive exchange float to suffocate the order book. They distributed their bags directly into the hype. market makers pivot to selling, they pull their bids. That $0.1860 demand block that held the last pump was abandoned, triggering a cascade of retail liquidations. custody wallets flood hot desks with seven figures of supply, it creates a massive structural sell-wall. Trade the order flow, not the meme!
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Crypto Breaking News (@CryptoBreakNews) reportedCoinbase Begins Regulated Crypto Derivatives Trading in Canada Coinbase has rolled out crypto derivatives trading in Canada, expanding access to both perpetual and dated futures tied to major digital assets including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). The move places more crypto...
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Sarcastinator.hl (@Not_A_De_Gen) reporteddo we think coinbase is broken now?
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Lukasz Wydra (@lukasz_wydra) reportedBitcoin (BTC) Update 📊 The Coinbase Premium has turned sharply negative again, now standing at -$40.31. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Exchange Netflow is slightly negative, hovering close to the neutral level. And what are the whales doing? I'll break it down today at 8:00 PM CET during the YouTube Live [PL] 👀 @ForeDex_Global
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Crypto Confidential (@CryptoConfiden2) reported@cobie @underwaterwux Did coinbase offer you an employment contract after they bought your company? Or was you working there part of the buyout deal?
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Al (@Al46614154) reported@BIoodTitheAryan @CoinbaseMarkets Some poor guy just bought in 40k usd, placed sale orders in the same price. The price goes higher in other exchanges while coinbase isn’t buying it back from him. All they know is sale and manipulating prices down. If I was him I would withdraw the coins and sale in other exchang
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exchangeIntel (@exchangeIntel) reportedCoinbase Coinbase Onramp performance issue resolved The incident is marked resolved by the official source. Official incident duration: ~1h 22m.
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BitcoinCarryTrade 🛡️ (@ericwynnus) reportedOn this date, Lonely Mountain Mining made payments to our creditors: @coinbase @Barclays We continue to generate cash on a daily basis and our first objective is to pay back our creditors who are the life blood of our business. All excess cash is used to support the Bitcoin community.
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Huisor (@HuisorAI) reportedETH/USDT current price (September 3, 2026) ≈ 2404.27 On-chain data: Funding rate: Binance ETHUSDT perpetual contract +0.01% / 8 hours, annualized approximately +10.95%. Long positions are continuously paying, crowded but not yet in an extreme squeeze zone. The 7-day average is lower, indicating a "bullish but not overheated" market. OI: Different metrics. Binance perpetual contracts are $5.5 billion, accounting for approximately 23.6%; the total visible across all platforms is $10.7-23 billion. Short-term OI (On-Time Inflow) is down approximately 3.08% in the last 24 hours, indicating leverage is being unloaded during the pullback, and this is not a new round of accelerated accumulation. Exchange Net Inflow/Reserves: Mid-term reserves remain in the lower end of the 2026 range (approximately 14.9-15 million ETH), with a structure leaning towards locked positions; however, approximately 110,000 ETH have flowed back into exchanges in the last three days, indicating a short-term supply rebound. Whales have made a net purchase of approximately +$82.2 million in the last 24 hours, which, along with short-term inflows, represents a hedging structure of "mid-term accumulation + short-term profit-taking." ETH.D: Approximately 11.10%-11.20%. BTC.D: Approximately 59.6%. Funds remain biased towards Bitcoin, and ETH's relative strength is insufficient to initiate a major upward wave independently. MVRV/Realized Price: The publicly available precise value has not been fully unlocked. Based on the August low of approximately 1860, the price surged to 2515, and then returned to 2404, the realized cost basis is roughly between 2440 and 2450. The current price is slightly below this range, indicating some short-term profit-taking. The mid-term undervaluation relative to mid-August has been corrected, and it is no longer considered "extremely cheap." Active Addresses / Sentiment: Fear & Greed is approximately 72, but has declined from the day of the surge. The Coinbase premium has weakened, and the long/short ratio remains biased towards long positions. Today's biggest macroeconomic variable is the US non-farm payrolls report; the interest rate path and risk appetite will directly impact ETH's 2370-2466 trading range. Price range conclusion: Upward price levels: 2428.00 / 2448.00 / 2466.53; Downward price levels: 2372.00 / 2356.41 / 2333.00; Price range: 2375.00–2428.00. Expected trend for the next 24 hours: Slightly weak with fluctuations. Central range: 2386.00–2412.00. A valid upward move requires a firm hold above 2428.00 and a pullback that doesn't break below 2412.00; A valid downward move requires a break below 2356.00 and a 1-hour close below it. The default path is: test 2412 before 12:00, touch 2426 and pull back at 16:00; sweep between 2372 and 2408 around 20:00; close at 2386-2402 by 08:00 tomorrow. Segmented resistance levels (Hong Kong time, price represents the upper resistance/lower support at that time): 09/03 08:00 baseline 2390.91, midline of the trading range. 09/03 12:00 resistance 2412.00, support 2384.00. The Asian afternoon session corrected with a bearish K6 candle, first testing the short-term MA axis. 09/03 16:00 resistance 2426.00, support 2388.00. The European session has the highest liquidity and is also the most common location for false breakouts. September 3rd, 20:00: Resistance at 2408.00, Support at 2372.00. With the Non-Farm Payrolls report due, volatility is expected to increase, with potential moves to both upper and lower limits. September 4th, 00:00: Resistance at 2396.00, Support at 2368.00. The pullback effect is more likely to be evident in the latter half of the US session. September 4th, 04:00: Resistance at 2388.00, Support at 2356.00. Recommended Trading Plan Main Force Recommendation: Range Trading Long: Entry Price: 2372.00–2382.00 Take Profit: 2418.00 / 2448.00 Stop Loss: 2352.00 Position Size: No more than 2.00% Short: Entry Price: 2426.00–2436.00 Take Profit: 2392.00 / 2372.00 Stop Loss: 2458.00 Position Size: No more than 2.00% Position Suggestions and Risk Control: A stop loss must be placed. 1. The current price of 2404.27 is at the midpoint of the trading range, not an entry point. Wait for the end of the range before making a move. 2. If the 1-hour closing price falls below 2333.00, cancel the long position and only keep the short position. 3. If the price breaks above 2466.53 with high volume and retraces but doesn't break 2448.00, cancel the short position and only keep the long position. 4. Go to cash within 15 minutes before and after the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
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mleejr (@MLeeJr) reported@seyong @fomo now over $80k on fomo @seyong 🫡 buying and holding this coin for months and months and months up down 90 up again down 80 up up down down up listed on coinbase up up down again back up a little thousands of us still here ill be the fomo example of buy and hold can make the top of leaderboard too plus moonpay sent the grok has money tweet yesterday did 100k impressions so easy 🤝
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Blockchain Daily News (@blckchaindaily) reported🚨 COINBASE $COIN CEO BRIAN ARMSTRONG SAYS WORKING ON OMARCHY PLUGIN FOR COINBASE, COMING SOON, CALLING IT AN AI NATIVE OPERATING SYSTEM
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The Crypto Compass (@CryptoCompassCA) reported@coinbase Regulated crypto derivatives finally landing in Canada while everyone assumes our market is three years behind on everything. Slow and cautious turns out to occasionally mean 'actually got it built properly.'
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Anthony Bower (@s12ocg) reported@DOGE_Kingdom_ @coinbase Could you please share the transaction details or error message you’re seeing so we can check why the funds are still unavailable for transfer?
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Tee🌹 (@cryptomansui) reportedETH/USDT current price (September 3, 2026) ≈ 2404.27 On-chain data: Funding rate: Binance ETHUSDT perpetual contract +0.01% / 8 hours, annualized approximately +10.95%. Long positions are continuously paying, crowded but not yet in an extreme squeeze zone. The 7-day average is lower, indicating a "bullish but not overheated" market. OI: Different metrics. Binance perpetual contracts are $5.5 billion, accounting for approximately 23.6%; the total visible across all platforms is $10.7-23 billion. Short-term OI (On-Time Inflow) is down approximately 3.08% in the last 24 hours, indicating leverage is being unloaded during the pullback, and this is not a new round of accelerated accumulation. Exchange Net Inflow/Reserves: Mid-term reserves remain in the lower end of the 2026 range (approximately 14.9-15 million ETH), with a structure leaning towards locked positions; however, approximately 110,000 ETH have flowed back into exchanges in the last three days, indicating a short-term supply rebound. Whales have made a net purchase of approximately +$82.2 million in the last 24 hours, which, along with short-term inflows, represents a hedging structure of "mid-term accumulation + short-term profit-taking." ETH.D: Approximately 11.10%-11.20%. BTC.D: Approximately 59.6%. Funds remain biased towards Bitcoin, and ETH's relative strength is insufficient to initiate a major upward wave independently. MVRV/Realized Price: The publicly available precise value has not been fully unlocked. Based on the August low of approximately 1860, the price surged to 2515, and then returned to 2404, the realized cost basis is roughly between 2440 and 2450. The current price is slightly below this range, indicating some short-term profit-taking. The mid-term undervaluation relative to mid-August has been corrected, and it is no longer considered "extremely cheap." Active Addresses / Sentiment: Fear & Greed is approximately 72, but has declined from the day of the surge. The Coinbase premium has weakened, and the long/short ratio remains biased towards long positions. Today's biggest macroeconomic variable is the US non-farm payrolls report; the interest rate path and risk appetite will directly impact ETH's 2370-2466 trading range. Price range conclusion: Upward price: 2428.00 / 2448.00 / 2466.53; Downward price: 2372.00 / 2356.41 / 2333.00; Price range: 2375.00–2428.00. Today's hexagram = Mountain over Water (4th hexagram) The hexagram Meng says: A spring emerges from beneath the mountain, but it is dangerous and stops there. Inside is water, outside is a mountain. The water is blocked inside the mountain, not because it has dried up, but because it has not yet found an outlet. This perfectly reflects the current market situation: From August 19th to 21st, the price surged from approximately 1917 to 2515, a surge resembling a "spring gushing forth." Subsequently, since August 22nd, it has fluctuated between the highs of 2420 and 2515. On September 1st and 2nd, it closed lower for several consecutive days, falling from 2466.53 to 2390.91, a situation where the upward momentum is blocked by the terrain. The hexagram Meng (meng) states, "Success. It is not I who seek the ignorant youth, but the ignorant youth who seeks me. The first divination is auspicious; repeated divinations are disrespectful, and disrespect will not be answered." In trading, this means: the first inquiry can provide direction, but repeated inquiries and orders are disrespectful. Today is not a day for "adding leverage to gamble on a breakout," but a day for "waiting for enlightenment and confirmation." The second line, "Embracing the ignorant brings good fortune," and the top line, "Striking the ignorant," both suggest: one can teach and awaken, but one must not be confused oneself first. In terms of the Five Elements, outer earth overcomes inner water. The outer trigram represents the three days that have already passed (Yang-Yin-Yin external momentum accumulating into Earth), while the inner trigram represents the three days that occurred earlier, representing Water. Earth overcomes Water = external pressure suppresses internal flow, hence the daily chart shows downward strength, but this doesn't necessarily mean the trend has turned bearish—the mountain also represents stop-loss and water accumulation. The large bullish candle throughout August is still present, and the weekly chart is still in the first phase of digestion after the surge, so the hexagram doesn't indicate a collapse, but rather "high-level obscurity, initial confinement followed by enlightenment." Expected 24-hour outlook: Slightly weak consolidation. Central range: 2386.00–2412.00. A valid upward move requires a firm hold above 2428.00 and a pullback that doesn't break 2412.00; a valid downward move requires a break below 2356.00 and an hourly close below it. The default path is: test 2412 before 12:00, touch 2426 and pull back at 16:00; sweep between 2372 and 2408 around 20:00; close at 2386-2402 by 08:00 tomorrow. Segmented resistance levels (Hong Kong time, price represents the upper resistance/lower support at that time): 09/03 08:00 baseline 2390.91, midline of the trading range. 09/03 12:00 resistance 2412.00, support 2384.00. The Asian afternoon session corrected with a bearish K6 candle, first testing the short-term MA axis. 09/03 16:00 resistance 2426.00, support 2388.00. The European session has the highest liquidity and is also the most common location for false breakouts. September 3rd, 20:00: Resistance at 2408.00, Support at 2372.00. With the Non-Farm Payrolls report due, volatility is expected to increase, with potential moves to both upper and lower limits. September 4th, 00:00: Resistance at 2396.00, Support at 2368.00. The pullback effect is more likely to be evident in the latter half of the US session. September 4th, 04:00: Resistance at 2388.00, Support at 2356.00. Recommended Trading Plan Main Force Recommendation: Range Trading Long: Entry Price: 2372.00–2382.00 Take Profit: 2418.00 / 2448.00 Stop Loss: 2352.00 Position Size: No more than 2.00% Short: Entry Price: 2426.00–2436.00 Take Profit: 2392.00 / 2372.00 Stop Loss: 2458.00 Position Size: No more than 2.00% Position Suggestions and Risk Control: A stop loss must be placed. 1. The current price of 2404.27 is at the midpoint of the trading range, not an entry point. Wait for the end of the range before making a move. 2. If the 1-hour closing price falls below 2333.00, cancel the long position and only keep the short position. 3. If the price breaks above 2466.53 with high volume and retraces but doesn't break 2448.00, cancel the short position and only keep the long position. 4. Go to cash within 15 minutes before and after the Non-Farm Payrolls report.
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